Modeling climate change impact on irrigation water requirement and yield of mango (Mangifera indica L.) in Egypt
Ibrahim Eldesouki Arafat, Taha Nagiub Maklad.
Abstract
Assessing the impacts of climate change on irrigation water requirement (IWR) and crop yields is one of important topics with respect to climate change. The purpose of this study was to investigate the impact of climate change on future IWR and yield of mango in three governorates in Egypt (Ismalia, Sharkia, and Bihera) for the 2050s and 2100s.The average climatic data for 2020 period for the three governorates were processed by MAGICC (version 6.0) application and Hadley Centre Coupled Model Version 3 (HadCM3) model, to extract the projection changes in temperatures of the regions under intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios A1 and B1. The FAO CROPWATE (version 8.0) application was used to estimate the ETo, and IWR, as well as impact of changes in IWR on mango yield. According to the results, as the end of the century approaches, the irrigation water requirements of mature mango trees will increase. This will result in noticeable reductions in mango yield; the yield of mango will decrease by 92.53% - 85.73% in the future periods under scenarios A1 and B1, respectively. Serious attention has to be paid to the water resources management of Egypt. The use of drought-tolerant cultivars in the region can be a good strategy to deal with the predicted future climatic conditions.
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