Abstract

Objective: This study aimed to describe the burden and trends of atrial fibrillation and atrial flutter (AF/AFL) across the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries from 1990 to 2023.
Methods: A retrospective analysis was conducted using modelled estimates from the Global Burden of Disease 2023 study (1990-2023), accessed via the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation Results Tool. Age-standardized rates for deaths, incidence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were extracted. Data from 1990 and 2023 were then compared. Age-specific DALY rates were assessed across groups. The leading risk factors contributing to AF/ AFL deaths in 2023 were summarized. Finally, risk-attributable death rates were projected to 2050.
Results: DALY rates increased in most countries, most notably in Saudi Arabia (from 65.73 to 97.62) and Oman (from 90.03 to 126.61). Death rates rose markedly in the United Arab Emirates (from 1.74 to 3.89) and Saudi Arabia (from 2.83 to 5.36). The burden of AF/AFL increased steeply with age. In Oman, the DALY rate per 100,000 population rose from 2.66 in the 30-34 age group to 16,289.63 in those aged ≥95 years. Elevated systolic blood pressure and high body mass index were the leading attributable risks. Forecasts suggested continued increases in death rates attributable to metabolic risks, with widening uncertainty intervals by 2050.
Conclusion: The burden of AF/AFL has risen in the GCC since 1990. This trend is driven by aging-related disability and mortality, alongside a risk profile dominated by modifiable metabolic factors. Regional prevention should prioritize blood pressure control and promote healthy weight management.

Key words: Atrial fibrillation, GCC, incidence, death, DALYs