Abstract

Background:
The olive tree is one of the most historically significant trees, particularly in Libya and in the Mediterranean region as a whole. However, climate change has emerged as a critical threat to its sustainability. As highlighted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), rising temperatures, reduced precipitation, and altered weather patterns are exacerbating extreme climatic events, which in turn adversely affect agricultural output, water availability, and ultimately, crop yield and quality.

Aim:
The current study investigates the effects of climate change (Temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity) on olive trees in the Al-Jafara Region, Libya.

Methods:
Analyzing climatic data (2004–2023) and conducting surveys with local farmers. A key focus was the assessment of chilling units (accumulated hourly temperatures below 7.3°C), which are crucial for olive productivity, using Excel sheets and SPSS software.

Results:
Findings indicate an average of 262 chill units during winter months (December–February), with extreme variability peaking at 435 units (2005) and dropping to a mere 93 units (2007). Survey responses revealed that 95.2% of farmers observed shifts in olive productivity, with 83.6% reporting yield declines. Approximately 55% estimated productivity losses of 26–50%, while 89.4% noted a 1–50% reduction in olive oil output.

Conclusion:
A notable increase in extreme temperature events poses serious threats to olive cultivation. Rising heatwave intensity, extended droughts, shifts in seasonal rainfall patterns, and irregular precipitation during growth periods have resulted in unstable and steadily declining yields. To mitigate these effects, the authors recommend selecting a specific variety of Olive trees based on their chill unit requirements, enhancing research and development in olive cultivation to improve climate resilience, implementing monitoring programs to track the impacts of climate change on olive trees, and providing training for farmers on sustainable agricultural practices.

Key words: Adaptation strategies; Climate change; Libya; Olive tree; Sustainable agriculture.