This study aims to construct economic models for a short-term interest series using the Taylor rule and Interest Smoothing rule and to obtain ex-post and ex-ante forecast values for the short-term interest series based on the constructed models. Given the ex-post forecast values for the short-term interest series based on these models, the actual and ex-post forecast values for short-term interest rate were found to be close to one another during the period 2014(1)-2014(3). The actual and forecast values for short-term interest rate were at about 9% particularly during the last three quarters, which indicates that a tight monetary policy was adopted during the period in question. Inview of the ex-ante forecast values, the actual short-term interest rate value was10.58% in the 2014(4) period, while the ex-ante forecast value was 9.13% for the same period.
Key words: Taylors Monetary Rule, Interest Smoothing Rule, Least Squares Method, Ex-post Forecast, Ex-ante Forecast. JEL Classification: E43 Article Language: EnglishTurkish
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