Background:
Milk considered one of the most important capital goods and essential source of animal protein in the diet of Egyptian family, as well as an effective mean to improve economic condition of farmers, considering this importance in view, the policy makers need accurate and advance information regarding future supply for planning on both short and long term.
Aim:
The study aims to forecast the production of milk in Egypt during the period from 2022 to 2025 using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model using time series data of milk production (1970-2021) obtained from Central Agency for public mobilization and statistics (CAPMS).
Methods:
Augmented Dickey-Fullar Unit Root test, Partial autocorrelation function (PACF) and Autocorrelation function (ACF) of the time series sequence were used to judge the stationarity of the data. After confirming the stationarity of the data, the appropriate ARIMA model was selected based on certain statistical parameters like significant coefficients, values of adjusted R-squared, Akaike information criteria, Schwarz criterion and Standard Error of regression. After the selection of model based on the previous parameters the verification of model was employed through checking the residuals by Correlogram-Q-Statistics test.
Results:
The most fitted model to predict the future levels of milk production in Egypt was ARIMA (1, 1, and 3).
Conclusion:
Using ARIMA (1, 1, 3) model, it could be forecasted that the production of milk in Egypt would show increasing trend from 6152.606 thousand tons in 2022 to 6360.829 thousand tons in 2025.
Key words: Milk production, ARIMA, Forecasting, Egypt
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