Abstract

In this paper, the linkages between gold prices, inflation rates, long-run interest rates and FED balance sheets in USA economy are investigated by using Stock–Watson cointegration and Granger causality analysis in the period 1960–2011. The results of Stock–Watson cointegration analysis show the existence of long-run relationship among the variables mentioned. Besides, the results of Granger causality analysis in the context of Stock–Watson cointegration test indicate that there is unidirectional causality relationship run from long-term interest rates, inflation rates and FED balance sheet in which gold is excluded to gold prices, whereas bidirectional causality nexus between gold prices and FED balance sheet in which gold is included.

Key words: Gold Prices, Inflation Rates, Interest Rates, FED Balance Sheets, Stock–Watson Cointegration Test. JEL Classification: C32, E31, E43.

Article Language: EnglishTurkish