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Original Article

Ekonomik Yaklasim. 2005; 16(56): 34-42


A GREY MODEL STUDY OF FORECASTING SELECTED TURKISH MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES

Erdoğan KOTİL, Sadık ÇUKUR, Resul ERYİĞİT.




Abstract
Cited by 1 Articles

We have applied Grey model based prediction models to predict gross national product, inflation index and annual interest rates for Turkey for the period of 1989.01-2004.12. Since Turkish economy went through two deep financial crises, the performance of prediction model for these variables in the mentioned period is a good test of forecasting ability of the models. We have found that Grey model performs much better for the more regular series, as expected for the short-term time-series prediction models.

Key words: YOK

Article Language: EnglishTurkish






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