Abstract

Statistical and econometric methods used to evaluate the performance of budget expenditure projections are discussed first and then deviations of realized budget expenditures from projections are analysed with Turkish data. Analysis of the data for 1983-1998 indicate that realized total budget e.xpenditures consistently exeecd tlıeir projecteel values. This pattern lıowever is not comman to all e.xpenditure components in both economic and functiunal classification. The purpose of the study is to detectl those components which are mainly responsible for deviations. The only item whıich supports the "irrationality hypothesis" is expenditures on personnel payments. Percentage shares of components in total deviations are also calculated. Possible impacts of overall inflation, of "unexpected" inflation as well as of election environment on deviations are modelled. A general finding for the period is that a single component cannot be identified as responsible for the total deviation. The performance of budget projections are poor in general but the practice of budgeting in Turkey needs to be improved first so that the preferences of the public are realistically reflected in the projections and hence in the data.

Key words: na

Article Language: EnglishTurkish