This paper presents an analysis of time-series data for Turkey, in an attempt to ascertain the evidence for or against the export-led growth hypothesis. The paper also reexamines the direction of causation by handling properly two important issues in causality tests: the characteristics of data, and the choice of optimal lags. We find that standard methods of detecting export-economic growth relationship using Granger causality test (i.e. whether knowledge of past export growth improves the prediction of future GOP growth beyond predictions that are based on past GOP growth alone) may give misleading results if imports are not included in the system being analyzed. However, the findings results are inconclusive in evaluating competing hypothesis, but informative to theorisian and policy makers.
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